The Tesla Model Y might be on the verge of becoming the best-selling vehicle in the U.S., potentially dethroning the Ford F-150. New registrations for the Model Y are at an all-time high, which is good news for EV migration, but sales remain soft.

The Model Y’s rise to the top isn’t surprising if you’ve been following the market. Last year, it was the best-selling car globally, though not in North America. Recent data from Experian shows that the Model Y surpasses the Toyota Rav4 and is nipping at the heels of the Ford F-150. Last year, the Model Y was fifth in sales volume, behind the Toyota Rav4, Ram 1500, Chevrolet Silverado, and Ford F-series. Mid-year data placed it fourth, but new figures show it nearly matching the Toyota Rav4 in new vehicle registrations.

What this data doesn’t show is that the combined sales of GM trucks are higher than Ford’s and have been so for years. Yes, the Ford F-150 is the best-selling nameplate but GM sells the most trucks, has three nine electric models on sale now, and is number two in EV market share.

Model Y will get a refresh like the Model 3 Highland called Juniper. Photo: Tesla

The Model Y’s success is all the more amazing because it is somewhat stale and long in the tooth, forthcoming Juniper refresh or not. Politics surrounding Elon Musk doesn’t seem to be slowing the Tesla train down either. Even still, Tesla’s share of the EV market has fallen under 50 percent for the first time. Tesla’s big sales numbers reflect a single model getting the lion’s share of the company’s sales, as opposed to spread out over several models like full-line marques, such as Toyota, Ford, or GM.

Cadillac Lyriq is now the second-best seller behind Escalade. Photo: Cadillac

Hyundai, Ford, GM, and BMW are all making big dents in Tesla’s market share and this will only continue. Globally, the Chinese are the 800-pound gorilla in the room and are playing for keeps.

Nonetheless, achieving the top spot would be a significant milestone for Tesla, breaking a nearly half-century streak held by the Ford F-series. The Model Y’s potential to take the top spot might reflect changing consumer preferences towards electrification. We think the real reason is that the Big Three got greedy with $100K trucks. Not to worry as the huge dealership apparatus supporting Detroit automakers will spring into action with rebates, cheap leases, and discounts.

The sales juggernaut. Photo: Ford

Alyssa Milano and other Musk haters aside, the Tesla mystique still rings the cash register. The trick now is for Tesla to continue the momentum with an aging lineup and relentless competition from around the world. Your humble author is on the road traveling the West Coast and I have seen many Ioniq 6 sedans, Chevy Equinox EVs, and Mustang Mach-Es. The Model Y seems stale in comparison. The key tenant of capitalism is competition breeds the best products at the lowest price for the consumer. When it comes to EVs, let the games begin.

Every Rivian sale takes a bite of Tesla’s bottom line. Photo: Rivian